Florida has entered its period of rising deaths, 18 days exactly after the case numbers started shooting up.
The gray-colored graph below shows their period of *gradual* increase in deaths, 4 days in.
The cases REALLY took off on June 24, which means they are due to see skyrocketing death counts in about a week, July 11.
Their early deaths to cases ratio is standing right now at about 3%.
If they run out of tests (already happening) that % will go up. If the state's medical resources run out (already happening) the % will go up. Deaths from other causes will also rise, as nurses, doctors and hospitals are overwhelmed.
If the 3% ratio remains, then the number of death FL could see in one day alone could surpass 300, around July 20 or 21. They should also expect not to see any decline in death numbers until the end of July at the very soonest - and that's if everyone in Florida goes straight to all-out protective measures starting yesterday (July 3).
All opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the authors, and do not reflect those of University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, or any organizations of which either is a member.