Over the period from Oct. 20 to Nov. 20, the average ratio of deaths divided by hospitalizations on a 6-day lag is 2.06%. Multiplying this ratio times the most recently observed 7-day average of hospitalizations, 95,867, we can expect to see a 7-day average of deaths of 1,971 daily deaths six days from now. The current 7-day average of deaths is 1,781.
Update:
Using data which first became available on Dec 6, we can see that the 7-day average of daily deaths passed the predicted level on December 5, when the average rose to 2,125. This means that the prediction was too optimistic. Mostly likely this occurred because the most recent data was distorted by an extended 4-day Thanksgiving holiday dip, which caused lags in reporting, and numbers which thus appeared to be lower than the reality on the ground.
As of data available through Dec 7, we see that the daily death numbers continued to rise, with the most recent average being 2,204.
All opinions expressed in this blog are solely those of the authors, and do not reflect those of University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, or any organizations of which either is a member.
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