# The COVIC Pandemic is out of control

The COVID-19 pandemic is now raging utterly out of control in the U.S. The steady rise in the number of new daily cases identified began Oct 2, 29 days before the date of this analysis. The upward curvature of the daily case numbers line is clearly visible even in unsmoothed data:

The daily deaths line is extremely jagged, but the onset of the rise is visible right around Oct 19 or 20. This gives us at least an 18-day look at what to expect, given the direction of the line charting the daily cases.

The ratio between the number of cases and the number of deaths has been fairly stable at the 18-day lag. This is a chart of the ratio between deaths and cases, lagged by 18 days:

The average mortality rate over the period charted above since August 1 is 1.75%. This gives us a basis for a simple prediction for the next 18 days.

Here is the table and chart of numbers of deaths to expect over the next 2-3 weeks, given the data above.